Analisa Pergerakan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dolar Amerika Setelah Diterapkannyakebijakan Sistem Nilai Tukar Mengambang Bebas Di Indonesia

Abstract

Since free floating exchange rate system has been applied in Indonesia on August 1998, the accumulation of depreciation of rupiah agains the US dollar has been about 48,7 % until Desember 2001. This condition brings many argumentation about the reasons behind the exchange rate instability faced by Indonesia among many experts whether is it caused by economic factorsor by non economic factors. By recognizing the causes, it will be easier for the expert and govermentof Indonesia to formulate the solution. This research is intended to analyze the inflence of economic variables, i.e. inflation, interest rate, money supply, national income in both Indonesia and the united state of Amerika, as well as the position of the balance of international payment of Indonesia to the exchange rate movement in order to give contribution to solves the problem. Based on the result money supply becomes the only variable which has a significant influence on the exchange rate movement, instead of the other variables. Coeficient of the determination of the research model is 32,5 % means that other factors, not accomodated in this research, give 67,5 % influence to the exchange rate movement. This other factors can be categorized as other economic factors or non economic factors. Finally it can be concluded that except the variable of money supply, most the exchange rate movement is influenced by the other factors which are economic factors or non economic factors. Keywords : exchange rate, economic factors, non economic factors